Examines the level of concern regarding the state of US-Philippines relations after newly elected President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent anti-US tirades.
Volatility or retrenchment in credit markets in Q4 may provide an opportunity to tactically increase exposure ahead of year end.
The backdrop of the US presidential election provides a timely metaphor for the next financial crisis …
Trump’s anti-Mexico proposals, like terminating North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) require extraordinary action, making it unlikely they will transpire.
After decades of conflict what might the peace deal between the government and FARC mean for Colombia’s economy going forward?
At some point, a teenager’s parents must face the realization that they are not going to determine the outcome ...
Signaling by key actors suggests interest in reducing current global supply, however, OPEC faces challenges in implementing a production freeze.
Experience is both a powerful and painful learning tool…
How do perceptions of coup, successful or not, influence sovereign creditworthiness? In Turkey perceptions of the political situation are outpacing reality.
Political developments in South Africa warrant close attention as they pose short-term risks, and potentially could trigger a credit downgrade.
August 27, 2018
August days in financial markets tend to be quiet. Volumes contract as many investors take to the sidelines. This time offers a chance to spend time with families and friends, read a book, enjoy a beer; in short, it’s a good time to sharpen our axes for the fall.
June 28, 2018
Just a month ago markets appeared enamored with President Trump’s agenda for deregulation, tax reform and fiscal stimulus. The prospect of protectionism was viewed as mere rhetoric from a president in perpetual campaign mode.
May 31, 2018
Like greenskeepers carefully tending to the needs of golf course greens with the arrival of spring, central banks face an equally delicate task of restoring national economies showing slower signs of life without killing off healthy ones, and seek stability over wild undulations.
April 30, 2018
In his new book, psychologist Steven Pinker details how the human condition has steadily improved over the past millennia. His data suggests that we enjoy longer, healthier and happier lives than our ancestors; that we have made significant progress against disease and starvation; and we have experienced a steady decline in deaths resulting from wars, natural disasters and crime.
April 16, 2018
The last 30 plus days have seen a dramatic unfolding of events involving Russia. The combination of rising political tensions, new U.S. sanctions and another chemical weapons attack in Syria have put investors on edge. The conundrum facing investors is whether this new Syria crisis will quickly fade or linger given other cumulative effects.
March 30, 2018
Markets are known for offering investors lessons in humility. On the one hand, Warren Buffet suggests that “humility can make you rich.” On the other hand, a lack of humility, typified by chasing unsupportable gains (aka Bernie Madoff), can lead to ruin. The difference in outcomes rests on the ability of investors to gauge the market.
February 27, 2018
Humans have an innate tendency to discern patterns and connections between otherwise unrelated things. Psychiatrists have termed this ability as apophenia. It’s an essential trait to make sense of an otherwise random world.
January 29, 2018
These days it is easy to be cynical. Writing this on the eve of a U.S. government shutdown, it seems that our leaders and institutions too often disappoint us. Perhaps the truth about our leaders and institutions was always oversold, yet we chose to believe differently.
January 24, 2018
The U.S. economy is in the late stages of an expansion, and speculative excesses are beginning to proliferate. Risk assets will probably perform well in 2018 but increasing caution and portfolio conservatism are warranted
January 11, 2018
Over the course of 2017, we integrated big data analytics into Northwest Passage Capital Advisors’ tracking of global events. As part of our firm’s ongoing “Boots in the Cloud” research initiative, we are actively leveraging the vast data potential of the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (“GDELT’’) to gain a fuller and better-informed perspective on world events impacting emerging markets.