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Insights Archives 2017-10-13T01:54:33+00:00

Sharpen Your Axe

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
August 27, 2018

August days in financial markets tend to be quiet. Volumes contract as many investors take to the sidelines. This time offers a chance to spend time with families and friends, read a book, enjoy a beer; in short, it’s a good time to sharpen our axes for the fall.

Trump’s Trade War: A March of Folly?

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
June 28, 2018

Just a month ago markets appeared enamored with President Trump’s agenda for deregulation, tax reform and fiscal stimulus. The prospect of protectionism was viewed as mere rhetoric from a president in perpetual campaign mode.

Taper Tantrum 2.0

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
May 31, 2018

Like greenskeepers carefully tending to the needs of golf course greens with the arrival of spring, central banks face an equally delicate task of restoring national economies showing slower signs of life without killing off healthy ones, and seek stability over wild undulations.

Things are Better Than They Seem

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
April 30, 2018

In his new book, psychologist Steven Pinker details how the human condition has steadily improved over the past millennia.  His data suggests that we enjoy longer, healthier and happier lives than our ancestors; that we have made significant progress against disease and starvation; and we have experienced a steady decline in deaths resulting from wars, natural disasters and crime. 

Russia Update: Rising Instability, Syria and Sanctions

K.P. O'Reilly PhD, JD
April 16, 2018

The last 30 plus days have seen a dramatic unfolding of events involving Russia. The combination of rising political tensions, new U.S. sanctions and another chemical weapons attack in Syria have put investors on edge. The conundrum facing investors is whether this new Syria crisis will quickly fade or linger given other cumulative effects.

The End of Risk-Free Returns

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
March 30, 2018

Markets are known for offering investors lessons in humility. On the one hand, Warren Buffet suggests that “humility can make you rich.” On the other hand, a lack of humility, typified by chasing unsupportable gains (aka Bernie Madoff), can lead to ruin. The difference in outcomes rests on the ability of investors to gauge the market.

Apophenia

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
February 27, 2018

Humans have an innate tendency to discern patterns and connections between otherwise unrelated things. Psychiatrists have termed this ability as apophenia. It’s an essential trait to make sense of an otherwise random world.

Stories and Storytellers

Jefferson V. DeAngelis
January 29, 2018

These days it is easy to be cynical. Writing this on the eve of a U.S. government shutdown, it seems that our leaders and institutions too often disappoint us. Perhaps the truth about our leaders and institutions was always oversold, yet we chose to believe differently.

2018 Investment Outlook

William C. Slaughter
January 24, 2018

The U.S. economy is in the late stages of an expansion, and speculative excesses are beginning to proliferate. Risk assets will probably perform well in 2018 but increasing caution and portfolio conservatism are warranted

Monitoring Global Risk Events: Applying GDELT to Global Events

K.P. O'Reilly PhD, JD
January 11, 2018

Over the course of 2017, we integrated big data analytics into Northwest Passage Capital Advisors’ tracking of global events. As part of our firm’s ongoing “Boots in the Cloud” research initiative, we are actively leveraging the vast data potential of the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (“GDELT’’) to gain a fuller and better-informed perspective on world events impacting emerging markets.

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